Aduro Clean Technologies uses an aqueous platform — water as the reaction medium, a renewable hydrogen-donor, and a simple metal catalyst — to selectively cut hydrocarbon chains at moderate temperature. No external H₂ gas. No brute-force thermal cracking. One platform, thirteen market verticals, no direct competitor. This hub is the full investment case: the science, the moat, the markets, a live scenario model, and the milestones between here and commercialization.
Milestone de-risking. No earnings. Market re-rates on removal of failure risk.
Pilot data, LCA, FOAK groundbreaking, first license. TotalEnergies outcome is key.
Catalytic cracking 1938–42. Tech proven at pilot; first industrial unit under construction.
FOAK scale-up failure. Timeline shifts 2-3 years if continuous ops reveal problems.
First plants operating. Reference customers accelerate deals.
FOAK matching pilot data. 2nd/3rd licenses. HBU Alberta. EU PPWR mandates.
Catalytic cracking 1942–47. Qualcomm CDMA 1995–2000.
First licensee data critical. Inconsistent results stall pipeline.
EU recycled content mandates binding. Penalties for non-compliance.
Regulatory deadlines. 3-5 new licenses/yr. Second-gen plant designs.
Catalytic cracking 1947–55. ARM 2007–12: smartphone forcing function.
Funded pyrolysis breakthroughs. Oil collapse <$40/bbl. Mandate reversal.
HCT as industry standard. New applications expand TAM continually.
Global regulatory harmonization. Asia adoption. SAF ramp. Metals recovery.
Catalytic cracking today. ARM today: 95%+ mobile devices.
Obsolescence from new chemistry. Low probability at this stage.